5 Private Equity Predictions for 2026
For private equity investors, 2026 is going to be a good year. Financing conditions are stabilizing, interest rates are decreasing and valuations are beginning to reset. Further, these firms are moving to growth-at-any-cost strategies, deeper diligence and more disciplined risk underwriting. Here’s a high-level look at a few things you can expect.
PE firms thrive despite policy and market uncertainty. Driven by shifting tariffs, interest-rate cycles and election-year fiscal debates, 2025 was certainly a challenge. This year, many firms will re-enter the market and hit the ground running with greater conviction, supported by stronger diligence, scenario modeling and operational planning. A few tactics include doubling down on operational risk management at the outset; leveraging advanced technologies to improve transparency and accuracy, specifically in terms of finance, tax and regulatory compliance; and diversifying portfolios across sectors, geographics and business models.
In 2026, deal volume and value will appreciate. This prediction is based on declining borrowing costs and uncertainty around tariffs declining. Leading the acceleration are mega funds and middle-market managers with larger funds driving growth in deal value. But strategic buyers will also play a defining role in this escalation. According to a survey by BDO, 43 percent of fund managers say most competition for deals will come from strategic acquirers. Here’s why: Their ability to pay higher prices, driven by operational synergies and stronger balance sheets, will intensify pressure on PE funds on the buy side. Consequently, this creates more favorable exit conditions for PE funds looking to sell assets.
PE is betting on AI, big-time. Firms are making sizable investments in industries that are the backbone of AI transformation, including data centers, energy producersand network hardware suppliers. While these categories are capital-intensive and tap into measurable, long-term market demand, PE’s interest in AI expands beyond sector strategy and deal sourcing, as firms are looking at how to leverage AI not only for fund and portfolio company management, but also the investment life cycle (due-diligence, fraud detection, standardized reporting), which improves the way decisions are made. Good news for investors, indeed.
Valuations will remain high for top-tier deals. Primarily, this isdriven by firms willing to pay premiums for companies considered resilient and/or strategically essential. Common features these businesses share are predictable cash flows, defensible business models and a position in sectors with secular growth, such as AI, infrastructure or technology-driven industries. Why? They’re better equipped to withstand macroeconomic volatility compared with other kinds of investments.
Lessons were learned from the 2021 buying frenzy. This eventful year was comprised of abundant liquidity, low interest rates and pent-up post-pandemic demand, which lead to aggressive dealmaking. Now that macro-conditions have shifted, those 2021 deals are struggling to perform. This year, fund managers are expected to learn from the dynamics of years past and recalibrate their strategies, looking more closely at valuations and focusing on fewer but high-quality deals. This builds greater flexibility for exit planning, whether it’s traditional sponsor-to-sponsor, strategic sales or IPO pathways. For the private equity investors, 2026 might well supersede the revenue-rich dynamic of 2021.
These are a few of the variables that will affect the private equity market. That said, success will most likely depend less on timing markets and more on being operationally prepared to seize the lucrative, high-quality opportunities when they arise.
Sources
https://www.bdo.com/insights/industries/private-equity/2026-private-equity-predictions#:~:text=In%202026%2C%20many%20firms%20will,elevated%20relative%20to%20historical%20norms
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